Tag Archives: Transmission

Episode 16: The mathematics of Ebola by the Health Ranger

http://www.biodefense.com/Pandemic-Preparedness-Episode-16.html

  • Currently every 1 Ebola results in an additional 1.5 – 2.0 infections within 3 – 4 weeks
  • The Ebola problem is an exponential problem
  • In Dallas, Thomas Duncan spread Ebola to at least one additional person (a nurse)
  • 70 medical staffers were needed to treat Duncan, just one Ebola patient
  • The infected nurse was not on the CDC’s watch list

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS AND CONTROL OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE OUTBREAK IN NIGERIA, JULY TO SEPTEMBER 2014

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=20920

We analyse up-to-date epidemiological data of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria as of 1 October 2014 in order to estimate the case fatality rate, the proportion of healthcare workers infected and the transmission tree. We also model the impact of control interventions on the size of the epidemic. Results indicate that Nigeria’s quick and forceful implementation of control interventions was determinant in controlling the outbreak rapidly and avoiding a far worse scenario in this country.

As Ebola Spreads, So Have Several Fallacies

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/us/fallacies-are-spreading-as-readily-as-the-virus-has.html?rref=health&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Health&pgtype=Blogs

Ebola victims can release large, virus-laden droplets — if, for example, their vomit hits the floor. These droplets may strike people in close range or land on a wall or some other surface, where they can stay infective for hours or days.

So, airborne droplets (moisture) can transmit Ebola. This opens up nasal, oral, lung infection.

Can Ebola virus infect via the skin?

http://www.virology.ws/2014/10/19/can-ebola-virus-infect-via-the-skin/

Viruses cannot replicate in, or be transported across, dead cells. Therefore any virus that lands on the skin cannot simply replicate in the outer layer or be transported to the underlying living cells.

However, viruses can pass through the dead layer of the skin through cuts or abrasions. Many activities, such as shaving, or even scratching, lead to microabrasions. It is relatively easy to breach the dead layer of cells with a fingernail, and such abrasions cannot be seen.