“There will be no public exit polls, but the hedge fund industry are rumored to be holding exit polls to get an early indication of the result. “
“Hedge funds, it appears, have been commissioning private exit polls so they can get an edge in currency trading before the official result of Britain’s vote on EU membership is announced. In the absence of published exit polls, the rest of us will be watching the foreign exchange markets for clues. To anyone considering a punt on sterling on referendum day, though, the advice should be: don’t try this at home.”
FT – don’t bother it’s paywalled
Forbes: The Fascinating Economics Of The Hedge Funds’ Private Brexit Exit Polls
Polling companies have told the Financial Times that demand is high for their services on referendum day.
“Hedge funds have asked for exit polls and for hourly polls on the day,” one pollster said.
“Banks are certainly commissioning polls for their own consumption that are never released.”
The cost of an exit poll, where researchers record votes electronically and send them to headquarters, is around £500,000 (US$730,000) – much lower than the potential profits available from finding out whether Leave or Remain is likely to win, according to the newspaper.
Betting odds have suggested the chances of a Remain victory are as high as 80 percent.
RT: The Big Brexit Short: Hedge funds’ exit polls could move markets & predict outcome